Local businessman Joe Issa, who majored in Accounting and Economics from universities on both sides of the Atlantic has found new research on international market gains instructive, tagging it “a must read”.
Issa, whose Cool Group is being leveraged internationally was referencing a recent Telegraph UK article titled, “The sterling effect: you gain 40pc, but the market is only up 15pc”, which he said, “is quite instructive and makes for good coffee-table reading for investors and policymakers.”
It said, “this may have distorted British investors’ view of how foreign markets have performed: a boost from the depreciation of sterling could have masked poor performance from the actual assets.
According to the article, the dramatic fall in the value of the pound since the Brexit vote has boosted savers’ returns from investments in foreign markets, because the dollars and euros which companies earn overseas are now worth more in sterling terms.
It produced a chart showing the differences in returns for investors in the US and European markets according to whether they invested in pounds, dollars or euros.
“Over the past two years, the S&P 500 index of the most significant American companies has returned 42pc to a sterling investor. Over the same period, the pound fell from more than $1.50 to a low of around $1.20, before recovering to $1.32. In US dollars, the S&P 500 has still performed impressively, gaining 27pc in two years.
“In Europe, the gulf between returns in sterling and returns in euros has been more dramatic. Over the past two years, the Euro Stoxx 50 index has returned 40pc in sterling terms, compared with 15pc in euros.
The disparity is more significant in the case of Europe because, while the pound has recovered somewhat against the dollar recently, no such recovery has taken place against the euro. In two years it has fallen from €1.42 to today’s rate of €1.13, slightly above its recent low of €1.09.
“The European market’s recovery from the financial crisis has lagged behind the US, and growth has been far slower. However, European shares are now comparatively cheap,” said investment analyst FE Trustnet.
The article cited a global survey of fund managers by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which found that “the eurozone is, after banks, the sector about which professional investors have most dramatically turned optimistic relative to the past 15 years.”
“The most significant disparity between sterling and local currency returns is seen in Japanese shares. Japan’s Topix index has gained 44pc in sterling terms, compared with just 15pc for a local investor in Japanese yen.
“Japan has struggled to escape the deflation that followed the collapse of an asset bubble in 1992. Now, a greater degree of political stability, and the continuation of the economic recovery programme instituted by Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, are giving investors hope.,” the survey found.
As in Europe, the fund managers polled in the Bank of America survey are now said to be far more heavily invested in Japan relative to the past 15 years.